CSID Network Theory of Change

CSID Network

Theory
of Change

Version 5.0 · May 2026

CSID Network csidnet.org

The challenge

Climate change, an indisputable reality of our time, impacts human health in measurable and escalating ways. "Climate Sensitive Infectious Disease" (CSID) describes infectious diseases whose transmission and spread are directly influenced by shifts in climate and weather. These include mosquito- and vector-borne diseases, respiratory pathogens, and waterborne diseases.

In response to growing awareness about CSID and advances in technology such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, a growing number of digital tools have emerged, including climate-informed early warning systems designed to better understand and predict the impact of near-term and long-term shifts in climate on disease transmission.

If implemented well, such tools have the potential to support governments, grassroots organizations, and individuals to proactively respond. However, to date, these tools and related practices have been unequally distributed, disconnected, and primarily developed and directed by those based outside of regions most affected by CSID. There are yet few examples of the successful use of CSID tools to respond to shifting disease transmission as a result of climate variation.

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

Root causes: Why current approaches fall short

Multiple overlapping factors contribute to these poor outcomes:

Access Gaps. Many models and tools lack openly available code repositories and transparent methodologies, limiting reproducibility and local adaptation.

Institutional Incentive Misalignment. Academic structures often discourage data, model, and code sharing across research teams, creating silos and inefficiencies.

Limited Pathways to Sustainability. Most CSID software is developed as time-limited academic projects, without plans for long-term maintenance or real-world deployment.

Structural Inequities. Actors from historically marginalized regions lack equitable access to funding, mentorship, and leadership opportunities, perpetuating global knowledge asymmetries along lines of race, geography, and gender.

Fragmentation. Current CSID initiatives operate in isolation, with fragmented funding streams, misaligned incentives, disconnected disciplinary communities, and limited mechanisms for knowledge circulation.

Data Governance Gaps. Questions of data sovereignty, algorithmic justice, and ethical data practices remain insufficiently addressed, leading to extraction without reciprocity and tools that communities cannot trust or control.

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

Our approach: Social infrastructure for collective impact

Technical solutions alone are insufficient to address the global health threats posed by CSIDs. Lasting impact requires sustained investment in the social and organizational infrastructures that enable collaboration across disciplines, sectors, and geographies.

The CSID Network builds relationships, shared infrastructure, and leadership pipelines that transcend individual projects and institutions, fostering a global community of practice rooted in equity, openness, and collaboration. Our approach is grounded in principles of justice and decolonial praxis.

We actively work to dismantle extractive knowledge systems and center the voices, needs, and leadership of communities most affected by climate-driven health threats. We consider social infrastructure essential: without intentional investment in relationships and governance structures, technical solutions remain fragmented and underutilized.

Together, these relationships enable collective intelligence; shared sense-making across regions, disciplines, and sectors that cannot be produced by isolated actors or tools alone.

CSIDNet members collaborating at Annual Gathering 2025

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

Long-term goal (10+ years)

Communities around the world, especially in under-resourced regions, can access, adapt, and mobilize data and modeling tools to anticipate and effectively respond to the outbreak, spread, and mutation of Climate-Sensitive Infectious Diseases.

Our short-term and intermediate outcomes trace the pathway from where we are today to this long-term goal. Each outcome represents a necessary milestone: first building individual capacity and trust-based relationships, then establishing community-level infrastructure, and finally achieving field-wide shifts in practice and policy.

$CSIDNet Annual Gathering 2025$

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

04 (continued)

Who are these communities?

Our definition of "communities" encompasses four interconnected groups who must work together to translate CSID tools into real-world impact:

Researchers

Scientists across disciplines (epidemiology, climate science, ecology, data science) who develop and refine CSID models and knowledge.

Technology Developers

Software engineers, data scientists, and tool-builders who create and maintain CSID platforms and data pipelines.

Public Health Agencies

Government ministries, international health organizations, and policy-making bodies who translate tools into action.

Community Responders

Local organizations, community health workers, and civil society groups who implement responses on the ground.

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

Programs

Programs operate across three levels: Individual Capacity Strengthening, Field Building, and Open Source Software Development.

Program	Tagline	Program Levels
Current Programs
Committees	Community Leadership Development	Individual Capacity Strengthening; Field Building
Convenings	Building Connections	Field Building
Training Courses	Capacity Strengthening	Individual Capacity Strengthening
Fellowship Program	Outstanding Ideas	Individual Capacity Strengthening; Field Building
Working Groups	Collective Intelligence	Field Building; Open Source Software Development
Planned Programs
Model Repository	Database and Global Knowledge Archive	Field Building; Open Source Software Development
Community Directory	Who's Who in CSID	Field Building
Mentorship Program	Mutual Aid	Individual Capacity Strengthening; Field Building
Fiscal Sponsorship	Legal and Compliance Support	Field Building
Technical Infrastructure	Software and AI Support	Open Source Software Development
Consultancy	Grant Applications and Strategic Support	Individual Capacity Strengthening; Field Building

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

Cross-cutting priority: Data governance, justice, and ethics

Cutting across all programs, CSIDNet is committed to establishing frameworks for responsible data stewardship, including guidelines for data sovereignty, consent, algorithmic accountability, and ethical data sharing. These practices ensure that data-driven tools can be trusted, adopted, and sustained by communities.

Data governance and justice principles are embedded in Training Courses, inform Working Group practices, and guide the development of the Model Repository and Technical Infrastructure.

This priority reflects a core assumption: open source practice and responsible data governance are inseparable. Preventing algorithmic harms, respecting data sovereignty, and ensuring consent are prerequisites for tools to be trusted, adopted, and sustainable.

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Outcomes

Our outcomes are structured as a causal pathway: short-term outcomes create the conditions for intermediate outcomes, which in turn build toward our long-term goal.

Short-term (1-2 years)

1Diverse CSID leaders emerge from historically underrepresented regions, bringing lived experience into global health discussions.

2Network members acquire new skills to navigate and bridge divides across disciplines, institutions, and cultural contexts.

3Shared, trust-based relationships and distributed community infrastructure strengthen collaborations across geographic boundaries.

4New collaborative outputs (models, policy recommendations, multimedia content, and peer-reviewed publications) expand the field of CSID.

5Existing tools, models, and practices are adapted, translated, or contextualized for local needs, rather than applied as one-size-fits-all solutions.

6Members experience the network as a safe environment to practice emerging skills (communication, facilitation, leadership) before deploying them in higher-stakes environments.

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

07 (continued)

Outcomes

Intermediate (3-5 years)

1Active communities of practice are established in previously underrepresented geographic regions.

2A shared, open, and globally accessible technical infrastructure supports collaborative CSID work at scale.

3Government agencies, nonprofits, and community-based organizations increasingly adopt CSID tools and frameworks in real-world decision-making.

4Policies and institutional incentives begin to shift toward greater openness, collaborative stewardship of data, models, and methods, including recognition of community-based contributions, shared authorship norms, and sustainable software maintenance.

5Decision-makers develop improved capacity to interpret, trust, and integrate CSID evidence into policy action.

6The CSID research field becomes self-sustaining, with established best practices for developing and using tools that meet the needs of both researchers and affected communities.

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

Assumptions

Social infrastructure is critical.

Without intentional investment in relationships and governance structures, technical solutions will remain fragmented and underutilized.

Tested through: community feedback on collaboration quality

Community stewardship requires sustained operational capacity.

Without dedicated labor for governance, onboarding, documentation, moderation, and conflict resolution, participation erodes.

Tested through: tracking member retention and committee health

Leadership must be localized.

Early-career leaders from underrepresented regions require sustained support to become visible thought leaders shaping the global CSID agenda.

Tested through: tracking leadership trajectories of fellows and committee members

Affiliation and recognition unlock participation.

When emerging contributors are supported by a credible network, they gain the visibility needed to share work and take on leadership roles.

Tested through: member surveys on network value

Trust and reciprocity drive collaboration.

Building long-term, trust-based relationships is a prerequisite for effective knowledge sharing and co-creation.

Tested through: network mapping and collaboration tracking

Responsible data governance is essential.

Preventing algorithmic harms, respecting data sovereignty, and ensuring consent are prerequisites for tools to be trusted, adopted, and sustainable.

Tested through: uptake of data governance frameworks

Co-design with end-users is key for impactful software.

Contextually grounded, diverse perspectives engaged from the beginning of tech solution design are necessary to develop solutions that are relevant, effective, and sustainable.

Tested through: tool adoption rates and user feedback

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

Monitoring and evaluation

The CSID Network uses an adaptive, community-driven approach to assess progress and continuously refine its strategies. M&E is treated as a shared learning practice that strengthens the network's collective intelligence, not as an extractive compliance exercise.

Individual Impact

Growth of leadership capacity, new collaborations, skill development, and tangible outputs among network members.

Organizational Impact

Formation of new partnerships, funding pipelines, and institutional collaborations.

Community Impact

Emergence of new affinity groups and place-based initiatives linked to CSID Network programs.

Field-Level Impact

Increased influence of non-academic actors in shaping CSID research; policy adoption of CSID tools and frameworks.

We rely on qualitative methods (interviews, network mapping, thematic analysis) and regular community feedback loops to surface emerging patterns, tensions, and opportunities.

CSID Network · Theory of Change csidnet.org

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